Record warm January in Vancouver on eve of 2010 Olympics

Vancouver is set to register the warmest January on record with an average temperature more than twice as warm as normal, according to Environment Canada.

"It's quite possible this will be the warmest January. We're sitting at 7.1 Celsius for an average right now and it will take a lot of cooling to knock that down," said meteorologist David Jones.

The highest recorded average temperature for the month is 6.3 C, which was was set in 1983, 1994, 2003, and 2006. Since record keeping began in 1937 at Vancouver International Airport the average temperature in January has been 3.3 C.

The last four days of January are calling for rain and highs of 8 C and lows of 6 C.

"We're attributing this to El Nino and we've been particularly warm," said Jones, referring to the infamous climate pattern that brings warm air from the south.

Vancouver has already set four daily high records as temperatures soared into double digits an unprecedented 11 times in the first 21 days. A normal month would only have 3.5 days above 10 C.

Conversely there have only been two days this month when the temperature has dipped below freezing. Normally in January a Vancouverite could expect to freeze outdoors for 12 days.

The balmy winter has caused worry and chatter among fans, officials, and athletes of the 2010 Winter Games and the forecast may go from bad to terrible for Cypress Mountain, which has already seen close to 500 millimetres of rain this month.

"We know El Nino has its strongest effect in the month of February," Jones said, adding that the average temperature in February should be about 1.5 C above average according to his long-term weather models.

"We're just not seeing anything that would lend me, as a skier, to have some hope about the snow situation in the mountains," Jones said.

But he also explained that the average temperatures don't indicate day-to-day weather and a cold snap is still possible during an El Nino year.

He also cautioned that such models are "dubious for liability after about seven days" and are only used to indicate the type of air that will be in the region at the time.

He said this year's El Nino is only moderate and that it has been a matter of timing and normal variability that will likely drive this month into the record books.

"Even without El Nino you can have warm stretches of weather," Jones said.

gwood@vancouversun.com